Monday, February 16, 2009

Israel's Coalition Creation Spaghetti Update

While my previous analysis still holds regarding the possibility that Bibi Netanyahu would form a right wing only coalition and Kadima would eventually crawl in, there's a major development: Kadima is attempting to bypass Likud from the right and form a coalition with Liberman's Israel Beitenu.

For more details, review these sources:
YnetNews: Kadima: We agree with Lieberman on 90% of issues (Voter theft of centrist votes in action)
Haim Ramon says meeting with Yisrael Beiteinu rep went well but witholds reponse to 'loyalty law'; Arab, leftist politicians respond with anger

JPost: Kadima okays Israel Beiteinu's demands; Bibi urges unity gov't
Kadima on Monday accepted Israel Beiteinu's list of coalition demands and Avigdor Lieberman's party said it hoped Likud would soon follow suit.

As well as civil unions and an eased conversion process, Lieberman is also seeking to be appointed defense minister or finance minister, wants Daniel Friedmann to stay in the justice portfolio, strongly advocates electoral reform and wants the next coalition committed to toppling Hamas in Gaza.

Meanwhile, Likud leader Binyamin Netanyahu urged Kadima to join a national unity government.

YnetNews: Netanyahu says will form government soon
Likud chairman tells his faction he won't be wasting time. 'We plan to form a broad national unity government, and I hope Kadima accepts this call.' MK Silvan Shalom: We demand that Kadima members stop their tricks and deals

Here's how I view these updates:

While Kadima is pretending to bypass Likud from the right, we need to remember two things:

1. Both Kadima and "Israel Beitenu" are offshoots from Likud.
2. Both these parties sat in a coalition with Labor about 2 years ago and governed from the left while keeping on making right-wing related proclamations when it came to security.

But the bottom line is that they both made more proclamations and noise than act as needed when they had to. If the next government would be structured from the same parties that were punished in the last election - then the same "no action" government will return with a different pin-head at the top.

The likelihood of Likud lead government is still high regardless of the political shenanigans in action.

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