Tuesday, May 21, 2013

Opinion: Syrian Danger

People bury the bodies of men activists say were killed by the Syrian government army, in Taftanaz village, east of Idlib, Syria April 5, 2012. source here

As I read through and observe developments on the Israel/Syrian truce lines on the Golan heights, I start thinking of another civil war. A war where everyone hated and murdered everyone. A war started by murderous anti-Israel groups, where Israel thought it had allies within the neighboring population. A neighboring civil war Israel had to intervene to protect our own, only to be sinking in their muddy hatred, and residing in their lands for many years.

The Syrian civil war, is an extension of that war in some ways. Lebanon's Hezbollah emerged from Lebanon's own civil war and the Iranian revolution. It was cultivated and nurtured by the Alawite Assad regime. And now, that "investment" has come back to haunt the religious sects in Syria.

One cannot always tell when threats by fighting sects which are directed at Israel, are more intended as a rally cry to fight another sect, however - one thing is clear - they all want Israel there - as a uniting force. A force to fight against, giving cover to their own atrocities against each other.

Israel might not be given a choice though. Numerous warnings to Assad not to use WMD-s, not to deliver sophisticated weapons to Hezbollah have been answered with defiance. After Israel "allegedly" took care of recent arms shipment attempt, and the US leaked Israel's culpability, Assad felt he has to build up his reputation and at the very least appear to be starting a war.

That appearance might produce certain blood price Israel cannot bear. At that point, Israel and its citizenry will be forced to endure another regional war.

Syria poses a short term, and a long term danger. Direct and massive Israel involvement there could act as a galvanizing force within the warring sects. Assad's allies unfortunately are powerful and unreasonable. Notable is Russian support. While Iran might be Assad's backers, their ability to affect beyond their control of Hezbollah is doubtful.

Far from me to give advise to those who are already aware of the explosive and dangerous situation. I'm just stating my observation. Danger.

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